Jimmy Johnson said more than once, “The reason football is so popular is that everyone thinks they know a lot about it.” He was right. When I started my NFL career, I thought I knew football. Looking back, I was a fan who had the privilege of learning the X’s and O’s, player evaluation, predictive performance, and analytical thinking from some of the best in the sport.
The term I used, and I heard for the first time from Dallas Cowboys Quality Control Coach Neill Armstrong, was “predictive game analysis”. More on this as we go along in the book, but the basic idea is creating and exploiting mismatches. Offenses want to create situations where they can capitalize on mismatches with the defense, where the defense has the wrong personnel on the field for the play the offense is going to run. For example, on 3rd down and 1 at midfield, having a pass play called with 5 receivers on the field facing a defense with 7 linemen on the field planning to stop a running play. This is a mismatch the offense can exploit if the quarterback does not get sacked! From the defensive perspective, coaches want to anticipate the offense’s personnel and play call and put the right players in the right scheme on the field to do two things. First, thwart the offensive attack. Second, take advantage of a mismatch to change the game’s momentum. For example, knowing that an offense’s tendency on 3rd and short is to throw to the left flat, a defense disguises its coverage so a linebacker or safety is in prime position to intercept the pass. Situational football analysis is the precursor to what today we look at and call analytics.
Without question, the technology has advanced significantly since the 80s and 90s. The game has become, perhaps, less of a team sport and more of a personnel or individual game, driven by continual rule changes that emphasize the passing game and specifically the quarterback. Football is a TV sport, and NFL owners change the rules annually to enhance its appeal. Fantasy football leagues and online gambling sites directly benefit from services like Amazon Web Services (AWS) analyzing individual players, predicting one-one-one matchups and outcomes.
Most NFL teams now rely on analytics and historical data, going for first downs on 4th downs in situations that would have never been the case in the 80s and 90s. I believe I can count on one hand the number of times the Dallas Cowboys went for it on 4th down in their own territory during the time I worked with them. And I never saw them succeed in making a first down in those situations. Perhaps coaches today rely too much on analytics, and less on their own instincts and the holistic view of the game. Regardless, where we are today is the direct result of where we were back in the late 80s and 90s. Hopefully this book provides a perspective on how technology contributed to the sport we are passionate about today.